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Feed Cost Intelligence
WASDE Sep 2026 · NCDEX
| Input | Feed Share | ₹ (NCDEX / CBOT linked) | Direction |
|---|
| Maize | 65% | ₹2,060/qtl | ↓ 3.1% WoW |
| Soybean Meal | 25–28% | ₹3,540/qtl | ↓ 1.8% WoW |
| Wheat (as filler) | 0–8% | ₹2,110/qtl | ↓ 0.9% WoW |
Feed Cost Relief Signal
USDA Sep WASDE revised US corn production up to 15.24B bushels — highest in 4 years. IMF maize at $183/MT is now down 8.2% from the May 2026 peak. For Indian integrators with open feed purchases, this is the best procurement window since Q3 2024. AnimStok model: a ₹200/qtl maize drop translates to ~₹12–14/kg improvement in dressed broiler EBITDA with a 6-week lag. Expect broiler producer margins to recover by mid-October if maize holds.
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FAO Index Detail
Aug 2026 · Reference only · Not for redistribution
| Index | Aug 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2025 | YoY Δ |
|---|
| Food Price Index | 121.4 | 120.8 | 116.9 | +3.8% |
| Meat Price Index | 118.6 | 118.2 | 115.1 | +3.0% |
| Cereal Price Index | 108.2 | 109.4 | 111.8 | −3.2% |
| Dairy Price Index | 124.6 | 123.0 | 118.4 | +5.2% |
| Vegetable Oil Index | 138.2 | 136.9 | 129.4 | +6.8% |
Signal: Cereal index in 3rd consecutive MoM decline — confirms harvest-season supply recovery globally. Vegetable oil index +6.8% YoY is the live cost pressure for feed formulators.
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Market Intelligence
1–7 Sep 2026 · Market-moving events only
Supply Signal
USDA Sep WASDE: US Corn Production 15.24B Bu — Bearish for Feed Costs
The September WASDE raised the US corn production estimate by 180M bushels vs August, reflecting better-than-expected yield in the Corn Belt. Global coarse grain supply revised up 4.2M MT. IMF maize benchmark fell to $183/MT — an 8.2% slide from May highs. For India's integrated broiler producers, a 6-week feed lag means Q4 margins should expand materially if maize holds below $190/MT through October.
Watch for: NCDEX maize Nov futures — proxy for India Q4 feed cost floor
Disease Alert
H5N1 Detected in Two US Commercial Layer Flocks — 1.4M Birds Culled
USDA confirmed H5N1 HPAI in Minnesota (0.9M birds) and Iowa (0.5M birds) commercial layer operations during 1–3 Sep 2026. US table egg inventories tightened; Chicago egg futures up 11% WoW. India is not directly exposed to US poultry supply, but rising US egg prices historically pull global egg powder prices up 4–6 weeks later — relevant for India's layer export economics (SKM, Venky's). No Indian flock alerts as of 5 Sep.
Watch for: WOAH notifications; India DAHD surveillance update for Q4 placement planning
Trade Risk
Vietnam Raises Buffalo MRL Standards — 180K MT India Channel at Risk
Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture issued a circular (effective 1 Oct 2026) tightening maximum residue limits for veterinary drug residues in imported beef and buffalo meat, aligning with EU standards. Industry estimates suggest 6–8 Indian abattoirs may not meet the new thresholds without process upgrades. APEDA confirmed emergency technical consultation with Vietnam's NAFIQPM is underway. Approximate exposure: 180,000 MT/yr, ~$450M revenue at current FOB. Facilities with existing EU certification are likely compliant.
Watch for: APEDA facility compliance list update; Vietnam import data Oct–Nov to confirm channel impact
Supply Signal
India SW Monsoon Begins Withdrawing from Rajasthan — Kharif Maize at 32.4M MT
IMD declared the onset of southwest monsoon withdrawal from western Rajasthan on 5 Sep 2026 — broadly on schedule. NAFED's crop assessment pegs kharif maize at 32.4M MT, up 4.1% YoY. Combined with WASDE bearishness, this firmly removes the feed cost upside risk that weighed on integrator margins through July–August. NCDEX maize Nov futures traded at ₹2,040–2,080/qtl on 5 Sep — lowest since March 2025.
Watch for: Nov NCDEX maize settlement for Q4 feed budget confirmation
Trade Risk
Brazil–Saudi Arabia Poultry MOU: 150K MT/yr Deal Threatens India's GCC Channel
BRF S.A. and Saudi Arabia's SFDA signed a 3-year supply MOU on 3 Sep 2026, covering 150,000 MT/yr of halal-certified frozen chicken at $1.28/kg FOB — 9–12% below India's current equivalent rate (~$1.40–1.44/kg). Saudi Arabia has been India's 4th-largest processed poultry export market (~$351M FY25). This deal structurally pressures the GCC channel unless India can offer comparable pricing or differentiate on quality/halal integrity. APEDA has not yet commented.
Watch for: India–GCC FTA negotiation update; APEDA processed poultry export data Sep–Oct
Macro
ECB Holds at 3.25%; EUR/INR at 89.4 — Stable for Seafood Exporters
The ECB held its deposit rate at 3.25% on 4 Sep 2026, with a data-dependent tone. EUR/INR at 89.4 is flat vs last week — stable for India's seafood exporters billing in EUR to EU buyers. A stronger EUR vs INR benefits India's shrimp and fish exporters (realised INR margin expands); the current stability means no FX windfall but no hedging urgency either. Watch USD/INR: at 83.6, export realisations in USD-invoiced deals remain supportive.
Watch for: Fed rate decision 18 Sep — USD direction will drive USD/INR and export INR margins