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LIVE DATAUpdated 10 Sept 2026

🐟 Global Salmon IntelligenceNorwegian Spot Prices · Chile Supply · EU / Japan / China Demand · Sea Lice Risk

Atlantic salmon market intelligence covering Norwegian NOS spot price benchmarks, Chilean supply signals, aquaculture disease risk, and global trade flows. Norway and Chile together supply ~85% of global farmed Atlantic salmon. Market observation only — no buy/sell signals.

NOS Salmon 3–5kg · Weekly Spot

—

NOK/kg

Nasdaq Salmon Index · ex-farm HOG · commercial licence

Norway Salmon FOB · Implied

~$9,241

/MT

+3.2%

SSB Norway export data 2023 · 1.45M MT · NOK 141B → USD implied

Chile Salmon FOB · Implied

~$6,545

/MT

+1.8%

Sernapesca 2023 · 1.10M MT · USD implied unit value

Norway Annual Export

~1.45

M MT/yr

SSB Norway 2023 · world #1 · 50% of global farmed Atlantic salmon supply

Market Price — Canonical Data

PRODUCT

Atlantic Salmon

Specification: NOS — Norwegian Salmon 3–5 kg (ex-farm, fresh head-on gutted)

TRADE STAGE

Ex-Farm

HS CODE

HS 030214

GEOGRAPHY

Norway

UNIT

NOK/kg

DATE

2025

Calculation: Volume-weighted weekly spot price for 3–5 kg class fresh HOG salmon at Norwegian farms

Source: Nasdaq Salmon Index / Kontali Analyse · salmonindex.no

Confidence: MEDIUM · NOS (Norwegian Salmon) weekly spot is the global salmon price reference — equivalent to WTI for oil. Commercial licence required. SSB Norway publishes monthly export value/volume used for implied FOB calculation.

Price series loading…

Export Monitor

VOLUME

1.45M MT/yr

VALUE

~$13.4B/yr

YoY

+2.8%

AVG PRICE

$9241/MT

Destination	Volume	Share	Value	YoY
🇪🇺 EU (Poland/France/Germany)	580K MT	40%	$5.36B	+2.5%
🇺🇸 USA	145K MT	10%	$1.34B	+4.2%
🇨🇳 China	116K MT	8%	$1.07B	+8.5%
🇯🇵 Japan	102K MT	7%	$0.94B	+1.8%
🇬🇧 UK	87K MT	6%	$0.80B	-0.5%
🌍 Other	420K MT	29%	$3.88B	+1.5%

Global Export Benchmark

#	Exporter	Volume	Value	Avg FOB	YoY	Note
#1	🇳🇴 Norway	1.4M MT	$13.4B	$9,241/MT	+2.8%	World #1. EU, USA, China, Japan. Traffic light production cap.
#2	🇨🇱 Chile	1.1M MT	$7.2B	$6,545/MT	+1.5%	USA, Japan, Brazil, China. Mix of fresh + frozen.
#3	🇬🇧 UK (Scotland)	0.2M MT	$1.8B	$9,000/MT	-0.5%	EU, USA. Premium Scottish salmon brand. ASC certified.
#4	🇫🇴 Faroe Islands	0.1M MT	$1.0B	$10,000/MT	+4.0%	EU, Russia (pre-2022). High quality, smaller volumes.
#5	🇨🇦 Canada (BC)	0.1M MT	$0.7B	$8,750/MT	-8.0%	USA primarily. BC net-pen phase-out reducing supply.

Source: USDA FAS PSD · 2023 · All figures in USD

Cost Drivers

Salmon Feed (Marine Ingredients)

STABLE

Fishmeal ~$1,450/MT; soy protein concentrate stable; feed = 50–55% of production cost

Sea Lice Treatment

RISING

Resistance to emamectin benzoate growing; mechanical delousing costly; biosecurity capex rising

Biomass Regulations (Norway)

CONSTRAINED

Norway's traffic light system ties production area allowance to sea lice density — high lice = production cut

NOK/USD Exchange Rate

NEUTRAL

NOK 10.5/USD; Norwegian exporters benefit from weak NOK in USD markets

Chile Disease Pressure (IHN/PRV)

WATCH

Piscine Orthoreovirus (PRV) and IHN outbreaks in Chilean Patagonia region; harvest losses elevated

Smolt Quality & Mortality

STABLE

Land-based smolt technology improving; lower sea mortality; new RAS facilities reducing risk in Norway

Market Signals

NORWAY SUPPLYCONSTRAINED

Norwegian biomass production area growth limited by regulatory traffic light system; supply growth capped at ~2–3% YoY

Norway's green/yellow/red license regime directly limits farm density based on lice counts. Red areas face production cuts.

Evidence: Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries · traffic light system Q2 2025 · area-by-area data

Confidence: HIGH

CHILE SUPPLYSTABLE

Chile harvest volumes tracking plan; no major disease event in 2025; Sernapesca data on target

Post-2023 ISA recovery complete; Sernapesca biosecurity compliance improving; harvest on schedule

Evidence: Sernapesca monthly harvest data · Salmon Chile industry report · Q2 2025

Confidence: MEDIUM

CHINA DEMANDGROWING

China salmon imports +8.5% YoY; urban premium sashimi demand structurally expanding

Rising middle-class income, Japan travel inspiring sashimi culture, premium retail channel expansion (Hema, Sam's Club)

Evidence: GACC China import data · Norwegian Seafood Council · 2025

Confidence: HIGH

SEA LICE RISKELEVATED

Sea lice levels above threshold in northern Norway production areas; treatment costs rising

Chemical resistance in Lepeophtheirus salmonis to emamectin benzoate; mechanical delousing expensive and stressful on fish

Evidence: BarentsWatch lice monitoring · Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries · Jun 2025

Confidence: HIGH

Global Buyer Intelligence

🇪🇺

EU (France / Poland / Germany)

~580K MT/yr (Norway only)

40%

of exports

Smoked salmonProcessing hub (Poland)Fresh retail

The EU is by far the largest market for Norwegian salmon. Poland is the largest single importer — buying fresh HOG salmon for smoking and filleting before redistribution across EU. France is the #1 retail smoked salmon market globally. Germany and Sweden are high-volume fresh consumers. EU tariff on Norwegian salmon: 2% (EEA but not EU — Norway pays MFN rate reduced by EEA agreement).

Poland processes ~200K MT of Norwegian salmon annually, making it the EU's processing hub. Any salmon price shock in Oslo ripples into French supermarket prices 2–4 weeks later. Brexit created new complexity for UK smoked salmon — formerly a major trans-EU flow.

🇺🇸

United States

~145K MT/yr (Norway + Chile)

10%

of exports

Fresh filletsFoodserviceHealth trend

The US is the fastest-growing premium salmon market outside Asia. No significant domestic Atlantic salmon production exists (Pacific salmon is a different market). Norwegian and Chilean product enter under USMCA-related tariff structures. US consumers prefer skinless fillets and portions. Whole Foods, Costco, and online delivery (Imperfect Foods, Good Fish) are key retail channels.

US salmon consumption per capita is growing ~3–5% annually, driven by health-conscious consumers. Foodservice (sushi restaurants, hotel chains) is the largest channel. A strong USD makes Norwegian salmon more expensive — watch the EUR/USD rate as a proxy for Norwegian salmon competitiveness in the US.

🇯🇵

Japan

~102K MT/yr (Norway only)

7%

of exports

Sashimi-grade freshTightly specifiedFat content critical

Japan's salmon demand is the most demanding specification globally — buyers specify fat content (>18% intramuscular fat), freshness (maximum 2-day transit from harvest), and size (3–4 kg preferred). Norwegian salmon dominates Japan's premium sashimi channel. Chilean salmon enters Japan for the lower-margin cooked/processed segment.

Japan is also a major salmon aquaculture research market — domestic land-based Atlantic salmon farming is developing (Hiroshima, Miyagi prefectures). Any successful Japanese domestic production would displace Norwegian imports. Watch SalFarm Japan and Kindai University aquaculture news as leading indicators.

🇨🇳

China

~116K MT/yr (Norway only)

8%

of exports

Sashimi diningE-commerce growthPremium retail

China is the world's fastest-growing salmon market. Norwegian salmon re-entered China in 2023 after diplomatic normalization following the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize dispute (Norway-China relations frozen for 6 years). China's premium fresh food e-commerce (Hema Fresh, JD Fresh, Sam's Club) has accelerated imported salmon access to tier-1 and tier-2 cities.

China salmon imports grew from ~100K MT in 2018 to ~400K MT by 2023. This trajectory makes China a major demand swing factor. Chilean product (frozen) dominates China by volume; Norwegian fresh dominates by value. Any regulatory change in Chinese import inspection (GACC) can disrupt flows quickly.